Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Econophysicist Predicts Date of Chinese Stock Market Collapse

The Shanghai Composite Index will burst between July 17 and 27, according to a new econophysics forecast.

The boom and bust nature of economics is one of the most puzzling aspects of the modern world. In the last year or so, many people have learned to their cost that when bubbles burst, businesses, jobs, and livelihoods can go with them.
So an obvious question arises: can we spot bubbles when they occur and predict when they are about to burst? One group of theorists say that they can and have used their techniques to make an extraordinary prediction.
First, they say that they've found the telltale signs of a bubble in the growth rate of the Shanghai Composite stock-market index. And second, they say that this bubble will burst between July 17 and 27 ...

More: http://www.technologyreview.com/blog...839/?nlid=2177

"" And second, they say that this bubble will burst between July 17 and 27 ...""

interesting a news snippet just yesterdysaid the Chinese economy was growing at a rate of 7%


next week will tel I guess

Good thing I don't do stocks anymore.

Eugene Stanley on Econophysics and the Current Economic Turmoil:

Almost every physicist by now has heard of the fast-growing subdiscipline of "econophysics", a field characterized by collaborations between physicists and economists and focused on asking if new insights or even laws could emerge if the concepts and approaches of statistical physics were brought to bear on questions that originate in economics. And almost everyone, physicist or nonphysicist, has by now heard that the economies of every country–large or small, Eastern or Western–are witnessing truly huge fluctuations. So it is natural to ask
"Does econophysics have anything to say about the current financial/economic turmoil?"
The answer to this question is a resounding "Yes!" since econophysics is statistical physics applied to the economy, and fluctuations are the substance of statistical physics. In economics, the probability density function (pdf) of price changes has been studied for over 100 years, ever since the PhD thesis of Bachelier in 1900 analyzed real data–without benefit of computers. Then, to understand the pattern he witnessed, he introduced a model which today we call the drunkard's walk. This is the model immortalized to the general public in the aphorism "random walk down Wall Street."...

H. Eugene Stanley writes in the December issue of the American Physical Society Newsletter (pdf).